Dissident support 'not negligible'

Published Wednesday, 06 October 2010
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The author of a survey showing that one in seven nationalists in Northern Ireland sympathise with dissident terrorists says he was surprised by the result.

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The survey by the University of Liverpool shows that 14% of the nationalist community have some "sympathy for the reasons" why groups like the Real IRA, the Continuity IRA and Óglaigh na hÉireann continue their campaign of violence.

The poll was conducted among 1,000 voters drawn from each of Northern Ireland's 18 constituencies after the General Election in May.

It will be published in full at a conference at Queen's University Belfast on Thursday.

"There is a section of hardcore, mainly young males within republican areas, who do have some sympathy with the reasons for dissident violence, who don't necessarily accept the PSNI and offer some political support for the political associations of dissidents", Professor Jon Tonge told UTV.

"We were surprised by the reported sympathy with dissident violence. We were expected smaller figures".

Former IRA prisoner Gerard Hodgins says there is "a proliferation of 40-something men" who have recently joined dissident political groupings.

"As long as we have ghettos of poverty you're always going to have a breeding ground for any organisation which is directly challenging the state", he told UTV.

The survey findings were released 24 hours after a Real IRA car bombing injured two police officers and caused extensive damage to an Ulster bank building in Londonderry.

Chief Supt Stephen Martin - the most senior police commander in Derry - claimed that the dissidents had no support in the city.

"The overwhelming majority of people in this city condemn what happened, do not support it and do not want it", he told reporters on Tuesday.

But Professor Tonge says the repeated claim that dissidents have no support is a mere assumption.

"We suggest their support is indeed small, arguably very small, but not quite negligible," he told UTV.

However, Professor Tonge insists that "sympathy is not the same as unequivocal support."

Dissidents could not successfully challenge Sinn Féin politically, he said.

"These dissidents would have no chance if they stood against Sinn Féin in the Assembly elections next year".

Freelance journalist Eamonn MacDermott, who often writes about dissident republicans, says the survey is not alarming.

"If you put it into context, it's not that shocking", he told UTV.

"Sympathy would mean that they might agree with the overall aim of republicans, which is a united Ireland. Sympathy does not necessarily translate into support of the methods of dissidents".

Last month, Home Secretary Theresa May revealed the threat level to Great Britain from Irish-related terrorism was raised from moderate to substantial, meaning an attack is a "strong possibility".

According to the survey, 53% of people within the unionist community view the dissident threat as "major" compared to 17% within the nationalist community.

"I think this comes down to the fact that nationalists are more tuned in to the reality of the dissident threat", Mr MacDermott says. "They realise that the dissidents are a really small group that are not capable of mounting a serious threat".

Gerard Hodgins is confident dissidents will declare a ceasefire in "a few years".

"In between, people will die needlessly and other people will go to jail for a very long time," the former hunger striker said.

© UTV News
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43 Comments
Paul M. in Derry wrote (592 days ago):
I agree with you Paul G. I notice henry didn't repond to your last question to him. Speaks volumes.
Alex in Limavady wrote (593 days ago):
Henry when you say that the Orange Order are bigots, do you mean they are well got or they are tall and well got? I think you need a few spelling classes yourself. Also some lessons on basic grammar and pronunciation. Oh and a few on capitalization and punctuation as well. Your grammar really is atrocious. Are you 12 by any chance or is it that you just did not have much education? It seems your bigotry is not the only ignorance that you are afflicted with..
henry in north belfast wrote (593 days ago):
lol fergal thats two words,>>>>>biggot, anyway, what is it you mean when you say biggot, do you mean am well got or am tall and well got, its so confuseing, is biggot a slang word from ur homestead in scotland, may i sugest you chat with jimmy and arrange a few spelling classes, and i have two words for you fergal, orange order, how biggot are they, i will tell you how biggot they are, they dont come any more bigot than em
Fergal in Derry wrote (593 days ago):
Paul I can sum it up in a single word for you. BIGGOT. Henry hates Protestants and that is why he rants on about Scottish freeloaders brought here by the British. As you rightly point out that was hundreds of years in the past but people like Henry can not get past that and have to treat it like it was yesterday. People like Henry no matter what religion they belong to are why we can not live in peace and why our children are condemned to live in conflict and ignorance for another generation.
Ulster Loyalist in Northern Ireland wrote (593 days ago):
Ulysses32, exactly how was Mr Saulter's speech a 'hate speech'? Incorrect maybe yes, but a hate speech? Certainly not. Irish republicanism and Roman Catholicism are entwined, history proves that. No amount of Socialism, Marxism, Communism, Leninism or Fascist claptrap espoused by different generations of republican groups will change that fact. As for the Orange Order. The size of the Order has fluctuated for many years. There are many reasons for the size of the Order decreasing, Especially in today's secular society where many religious groups find it hard to attract younger members. It has nothing to do with your nonsense about supposed 'bigotry'.
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